Executive Summary
The purpose of this handbook is to provide guidance to humanitarian practitioners and policymakers on identifying and measuring possible humanitarian implications of sanctions.
The information and guidelines presented are relevant to a wide variety of sanctions, including: arms embargoes, financial sanctions, travel-related sanctions and targeted trade sanctions. At the core of this handbook is an assessment methodology that facilitates evaluation of possible humanitarian consequences of sanctions. The methodology can be applied in advance of, during, or following sanctions, and aims to address two important challenges that present themselves when assessing the impact of sanctions on humanitarian conditions: (i) accurate evaluation of the current status of humanitarian conditions, and (ii) separation of the effects of sanctions on health and well-being from those due to other causes.
Identifying possible humanitarian consequences of sanctions early on can reduce confusion about humanitarian conditions and their causes, and can help mitigate any unintended consequences. It can also be useful in improving the targeting of humanitarian assistance to best meet the needs of vulnerable groups.
This assessment methodology is based on a human security conceptual framework (chapter 2), and uses models of cause and effect (chapter 3), combined with humanitarian indicators of PROCESS and OUTCOME (chapters 4 and 5) to assist practitioners in identifying the unique effects of sanctions. This conceptual framework operationalizes human security by defining two clusters of humanitarian and socio-economic conditions, each of which contains four subject areas: a “core” cluster—comprising subject areas of health, food and nutrition, water and sanitation, and education—and a “systemic” cluster: governance, economic status, physical environment, and demography. This configuration is referred to as the “4 + 4” human security subject areas.
Causal models identify how one thing causes another to occur. They feature causal pathways that consist of inter-related, intermediate steps linking actions with measurable outcomes. Using criteria of causation—including the relationship of time between two variables, the strength of association between two factors, the consistency in the relationship between a number of factors and the plausibility of the relationship between two factors—assists in clarifying whether a causal relationship exists between variables. Defining different types of causes—including direct, indirect, adequate and sufficient causes—also helps in identifying the intermediate steps in the chain of causation.
Causal models can be constructed by: clearly defining the actions and outcomes of interest (in this case, sanctions and humanitarian conditions); relating variables that may belong in causal chains; identifying potential, and then likely, causes; and constructing the pathways linking cause and effect.
Humanitarian indicators measure people’s conditions of life. They may take the form of measures of PROCESS—such as the number of children treated for malnutrition—or measures of OUTCOME—like the percentage of children that are malnourished. The essence of the sanctions assessment methodology is to determine whether there are changes in humanitarian conditions, as measured by indicators, that may be due to sanctions.
A reference list of humanitarian indicators in each of the eight human security subject areas is included in this handbook (annex II). To ensure compatibility with existing assessment processes, priority indicators that are compatible with those indicators used in the Common Country Assessment (CCA) process are identified in each of the human security subject areas (box 6). These indicators are used to provide a starting point for assessing humanitarian conditions, for monitoring those conditions over time, and for identifying possible changes in conditions resulting from sanctions.
When constructing causal models, the PROCESS indicators will generally relate to measurement of the intermediate steps in the chain of causation while the OUTCOME indicators will be used to measure humanitarian conditions. Some of the PROCESS and OUTCOME indicators can be used as points of reference against which to gauge future changes, while others will be more useful in measuring change during sanctions (table 7).
Before assessing possible changes in humanitarian conditions that may be caused by sanctions, a baseline assessment of conditions at an initial point in time (ideally prior to, or at the onset of, sanctions) is needed to establish a reference point against which to measure changes. In order to perform a baseline assessment it is necessary to: (i) gather information on humanitarian conditions using primary and secondary data sources (including other assessment processes); (ii) assess current conditions and recent trends in each of the “4 + 4” human security subject areas; (iii) identify possible factors influencing those conditions; (iv) establish a profile of vulnerability within the population; (v) identify “gaps” or deficiencies in existing data/information; and (vi) prepare to use the baseline as a reference for future assessment of changes in conditions. Assessment of humanitarian vulnerability is a crucial component of the baseline assessment and can be completed using methods such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping (VAM) technique.
The methodology for assessing the humanitarian implications of sanctions consists of five steps:
Step I—Clearly identify the sanction measures (types of sanctions proposed or in place) and outcome (humanitarian conditions) of interest;
Step II—Undertake a “baseline” assessment of conditions prior to sanctions;
Step III—For each of the “4 + 4” human security subject areas, construct causal models to identify possible connections between sanctions measures and humanitarian conditions;
Step IV—Identify potential sources of information for each of the PROCESS and OUTCOME indicators identified in the causal models, and gather the necessary information to complete the models;
Step V—In each human security subject area, identify and extract the contribution of sanctions to the observed effects, separate from effects due to other causes.
Identification of indicators and data sources unique to different types of targeted sanctions— including arms embargoes, financial sanctions, travel-related sanctions and targeted trade sanctions—facilitates the application of this generic methodology to these types of sanctions.
Standards for humanitarian assessments outlined in this handbook (see chapter 6) include consideration of the elements that must be contained in such assessments, draft text for requesting assessments and the required elements of an assessment report. The following section headings provide a template for drafting assessment reports: Introduction; Procedure and Methodology; Baseline and Prior Assessments; Assessment of Current Conditions; Results of Causal Modelling; Humanitarian Implications of Sanctions; and Findings.
Finally, this assessment methodology can be applied to situations other than sanctions, including: identifying the unique impact of conflict, or HIV/AIDS, on overall humanitarian conditions; contributing to the UN Common Country Assessment process; and conducting humanitarian needs assessments (chapter 7).
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