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A sanctions assessment must present some determination of the degree to which sanctions are affecting humanitarian conditions, separate from the effects caused by other factors. In some circumstances it may only be possible to provide a qualitative assessment of the degree to which sanctions influence humanitarian conditions, or indeed it may be impossible to separate out the discrete effects of sanctions at all. In such cases, the investigator should make clear the difficulties and must highlight the indeterminacy of the situation.
A credible assessment of the humanitarian implications of sanctions must include the following elements:
- Characterization of the humanitarian conditions prior to the initiation of sanction— “baseline” conditions—in a way that shows trends in recent years and the current situation at the time sanctions were instituted (see section 5.3).
- Specification of the sources of information used, the quality and limitations of those sources, and the consistency or variations among these sources (see section 4.3).
- Identification of major strengths and vulnerabilities of groups of people at the time sanctions were to be instituted (see section 5.3.1).
- Specification of the components of the sanctions regulations that could affect humanitarian conditions.
- Identification of the indicators likely to be most sensitive to changes in humanitarian conditions; identification of factors other than sanctions that are likely to have an important influence on those indicators.
- Specification with as much detail as possible of the pathways by which sanctions or other factors would influence humanitarian conditions.
- Examination of PROCESS and OUTCOME information, both quantitative and qualitative, on actual changes brought by sanctions and other factors through time and the changes in humanitarian conditions that may follow.
- Examination of the relative influence of sanctions and other factors in influencing changes in those conditions. This should take advantage of any regional differences in the intensity or type of sanctions or other factors implemented, and variations in population groups in impact and protections;
- Recommendations for ongoing monitoring of sanction’s impact, and on how to minimize any unintended humanitarian/socio-economic impacts of sanctions;
- Recommendations at the end of sanctions for development activities to address weaknesses and vulnerabilities exacerbated during sanctions.
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