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The assessment methodology described in this manual can by used prior to sanctions, during sanctions, and following the termination of sanctions. While the overall methodology remains unchanged, there are subtle differences in application depending on the context. These differences are presented below.
Prior to the imposition of sanctions existing conditions constitute the baseline, and assessment of the impact of proposed or pending sanctions will require that causal models be constructed tracing forward from the actions of interest (proposed sanction measures) to the likely effects. This is a hypothetical exercise, with the investigator asking: “What would be the effect of sanctions imposed on _____?”.
In preassessments, because the sanctions have yet to be imposed, the extent of coping strategies and the capacity of the society to mitigate the potential effects of sanction will be difficult to assess. Nevertheless, preassessments should identify the likely capacity of the sanctioned State/region to mitigate the effects of sanctions. For example, if sanctions are applied on a particular industry sector, how many people may lose their jobs and what is their potential to find employment in other areas?
In assessments undertaken during sanctions, practitioners can develop causal models by tracing forward from the sanctions measures, and also by tracing backwards from the observed humanitarian conditions. During sanctions, assessments should be undertaken on a regular basis (3-6 months) so that trends in humanitarian conditions (especially for those indicators susceptible to change under sanctions), can be identified in time and, if need be, the sanctioning authority can modify these measures. For successive sanctions assessments, investigators should attempt to gather data/information on the same indicators (or an expanded set) during each assessment.
For humanitarian assessments following sanctions, investigators assess the impact of the prior measures, and must construct a retrospective baseline if one is not available from previous assessments. Following sanctions, investigators may actually have increased access to quality uptodate information, as data collected prior to the lifting of sanctions may then become available, and investigators may have increased access to the previously sanctioned area.
An additional dimension of humanitarian assessments in the wake of sanctions is the humanitarian “legacy” of sanctions, which may have both positive and negative aspects.
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