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Section 3.4 described how to construct causal models by identifying and ordering the relationships between variables in the pathways linking cause and effect. Determination of whether a variable causes an outcome requires that the investigator measure and examine if and how a change in one is associated with a change in the other. PROCESS indicators of changes in services provided and activities undertaken, and OUTCOME indicators of changed status of people’s living conditions are used for this purpose.
Humanitarian outcomes may be influenced by many causes other than sanctions. Infant mortality, for example, is influenced by the education level of the mother, access to health information, the distribution of resources within the family, and access to medical care, in addition to the variables that may be directly influenced by sanctions. Good assessments examine the major components of a complex outcome like infant mortality. They seek to identify the major causes of mortality and morbidity and how they have changed over time. For each of these causes, what factors influence the occurrence of disease, its severity, or the timeliness or effectiveness of treatment? Only after looking into each of these issues can one make a substantive case about how sanctions or other factors might be associated with a change in infant mortality.
For both PROCESS and OUTCOME variables, some indicators can be used as reference benchmarks against which future changes can be compared. Ideally, such a baseline assessment (described in more detail in section 5.3) is undertaken prior to the imposition of sanctions. Other indicators will be more suitable to measuring change during sanctions. Examples of the different types of indicators that can be used for measurement of baseline conditions and changes in conditions include:
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Infant mortality rates change slowly over time in most countries. They are frequently used to characterize the overall conditions of life in a country because they are influenced by many variables. For humanitarian assessments in crisis situations, measurement of changes in the weight at time of birth is typically more useful, as it changes quickly in a population as access to food during pregnancy changes.21
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Access to or lack of access to piped (indoor) water and sanitary waste disposal improves or deteriorates slowly, whereas changes in the amount of water pumped or the bacteriologic quality of water changes quickly, depending on inputs of electricity and chlorine.
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Household assets (wealth, land, investments) accumulate over a long period of time and change slowly even in times of crisis, whereas household income responds much more quickly to changes in employment, productivity and rates of exchange.
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Educational levels in a population improve or deteriorate slowly (for example, adult literacy rates); school attendance, on the other hand, changes rapidly depending on the security situation, population movements or investment in teacher salaries.
Annex II includes a reference list of indicators to assess humanitarian conditions (table 7). The indicators are presented in groups according to the four subject areas in each of two clusters of human security outlined in chapter 2. This list should be considered a resource pool from which practitioners can draw indicators relevant to the particular case/environment being assessed.
Each of the humanitarian indicators catalogued in annex II is categorized as one of PROCESS or OUTCOME; those indicators that are considered more appropriate for measurement of changes in the respective conditions are also identified. The application of these indicators to the assessment of the humanitarian impacts of sanctions is further described in chapter 5. These indicators are intended to complement, and not replace, the list of indicators already in use in processes such as the UN Common Country Assessment (CCA).
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