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The methodology outlined in this handbook is based on a causal modelling approach. It employs structured models of cause and effect to trace the processes that lead from an action (the application of sanctions) to outcomes (for example, changes in humanitarian conditions) across economic and social sectors. The models also specify indicators of PROCESS to identify intermediate steps through which sanctions may affect humanitarian conditions.
By identifying pathways from actions to outcomes, the method makes explicit the causal mechanisms by which harm may occur and illuminates areas of focused inquiry for investigators to pursue. For instance, the imposition of a targeted trade sanction may result in reduced employment opportunities in a particular industry sector. Without alternative employment opportunities, this may result in reduced household income for displaced workers, thereby contributing to decreased household food security and reduced nutritional intake among workers’ dependents. Malnutrition among the more vulnerable household members would be a possible resulting outcome.
In this example, the process, with intermediate steps, links the action (sanction) to the outcome (increased malnutrition) (see figure 2). Since other factors may also influence nutritional intake, the identification of the processes that lead to changes in humanitarian conditions is intended to assist in isolating and measuring the effects that are specifically attributable to sanctions.
The methodology presented here does not in any way presuppose a particular type of impact due to sanctions. The impact of sanctions on humanitarian conditions in a particular case may be positive, neutral or negative. Investigators must keep an open mind in this regard and make their hypotheses explicit. The methodology helps in examining if a particular hypothesis is consistent with relevant data.
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