| Sanctions assessment methodology
| |
This chapter describes specific requirements for undertaking baseline assessments of humanitarian conditions, and presents five steps that constitute the sanctions assessment methodology. This chapter also includes guidelines on applying the methodology to assessment of four categories of targeted sanctions.
|
| |
A baseline assessment of humanitarian and socio-economic conditions around the time of the onset of sanctions provides a reference point against which future changes in humanitarian conditions can be measured. A baseline assessment should include:
- Levels and rates of change of key humanitarian indicators in each of the “4 + 4” human security subject areas (see table 2) over recent years and the relative stability of these conditions; more..........
|
Vulnerability
assessment key
to baseline and
ongoing
monitoring |
Humanitarian vulnerability is characterized by decreased access to essential goods and services relative to the needs of the individual. Assessing the vulnerability of population groups to changes in humanitarian conditions as a result of sanctions is critical in order to establish an effective baseline and to monitor the possible impact on these groups over time.
One technique employed to analyse and catalogue vulnerability is the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) approach used by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) and other humanitarian agencies.
Using this technique, vulnerability can be analysed and mapped in four steps. |
Four steps
for
Vulnerability
Analysis and
Mapping
(VAM) |
First, indicators are identified in each of the subject areas of interest across three dimensions: availability, access and utilization. Indicators can be selected from the “4 + 4” human security subject areas (see table 2). Second, the investigator must ensure that the“direction” of all indicators is the same: that is, ensure that a high value across all indicators represents a consistently favourable or unfavourable indicator. Third, weighting factors are defined to rank the relative importance of the chosen indicators to overall vulnerability. Fourth, an overall vulnerability index is calculated using the indicators and weighting factors. |
| |
The sanctions assessment methodology is presented here in five steps, and is summarized
in schematic form in figure 2. more.....
Step I: Clearly identify the sanction measures (types of sanctions proposed or in place) and
Step II: Undertake a “baseline” assessment of conditions prior to sanctions
Step III: For each of the “4 + 4” human security subject areas, construct causal models to identify possible linkages
between sanctions measures and humanitarian conditions
Step IV: Identify potential sources of information for each of the PROCESS and OUTCOME indicators identified in the
causal models, and gather the necessary information to complete the models
Step V: In each human security subject area, identify and extract the contribution of sanctions to the observed effects, separate from effects due to other causes
|
This assessment methodology can be used prior to sanctions, during sanctions and following the termination of sanctions.
Existing
conditions
constitute
baseline
Likely capacity
to mitigate
effects
Ongoing
monitoring |
Assessments prior to sanctions: Prior to the imposition of sanctions, existing conditions constitute the baseline, and assessment of the impact of proposed or pending sanctions will require that causal models be constructed tracing forward from the proposed sanction measures to the likely effects. For this, the investigator must pose the question: “What would be the effect of sanctions imposed on _____?” Pre-assessments should identify the likely capacity of the sanctioned state/region to mitigate the effects of sanctions.
|
Assessments during sanctions: In assessments undertaken during sanctions, practitioners can develop causal models by tracing forward from the sanctions measures, and also by tracing backwards from the observed humanitarian conditions. During sanctions, assessments should be undertaken on a regular basis (3-6 months).
Assessments following sanctions: For assessments following sanctions, investigators assess the impact of the prior measures, and must construct a retrospective baseline if one is not available from previous assessments. Following sanctions, investigators may actually have increased access to the previously sanctioned area, and to quality uptodate information. |
| Assessments under targeted sanctions: “areas of interest” |
The shift towards more targeted sanctions in the mid- to late 1990s has highlighted four categories of sanctions that will most likely be applied in the future (rather than comprehensive economic sanctions): (1) arms embargoes; (2) financial sanctions; (3) travel-related sanctions; and (4) targeted trade sanctions. Table 3 summarizes areas of interest, indicators and data sources for these four categories of targeted sanctions. |
|
