Causal modelling identifies how one thing causes another to occur. In the realm of humanitarian assessments, this type of modelling is necessary to understand better the effects of one possible cause in the context of other factors that may also influence humanitarian conditions.

This chapter provides guidance on how to identify whether a causal relationship exists between two factors and on how to build causal models.

There are several different types of causes that can be identified when building models of cause and effect. Becoming aware of these different types of causes and their interrelationships assists in exploring possible linkages between social, political and economic factors, and changes in humanitarian conditions.

A proximal cause is a cause that immediately precedes the outcome of interest. There may be prior events that lead to the proximal cause (see figure 1). Such events that are more removed in the sequence of causal steps are referred to as distal causes. Causal pathways can be illuminated by tracing through intermediate steps, working backward
from an outcome or forward from an initial event. The steps from distal and proximal causes to an outcome of interest are collectively referred to as a chain of causation. more......

There are several criteria that can be used to identify whether there is a causal relationship between two variables. These are referred to as criteria of causation and can be used to identify successive “links” in a chain of events linking cause and effect. Criteria of causation include:

A step-by-step approach to developing a causal model is presented in box 1. This procedure includes the use of the different categories of causes and the criteria of causation identified above to construct a causal model working through successive levels.

The identification of several “layers” of causes is similar to the multilevel approach to causal analysis used by UNICEF. This approach uses three levels of causes to assess changes in humanitarian conditions. more......